Damages from expropriation of silver mining project

In an arbitration claim before the International Centre for the Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID), Bear Creek Mining claimed $522 million in damages from the revocation of its right to mine the Santa Ana project. Dr. Dorobantu and Brattle academic advisor Professor Graham Davis prepared an expert report on behalf of Peru evaluating the claimant’s damages analysis. Dr. Dorobantu’s expert report and testimony explained that the discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis used to value the Santa Ana project overstated the project’s fair market value. He also highlighted the inconsistency between the damages claim and Bear Creek’s pre-breach market capitalization. Professor Davis and Dr. Dorobantu explained that the low market capitalization was consistent with a high likelihood that the company would fail to obtain the social license to operate the project because of strong community and social opposition. The Tribunal awarded Bear Creek less than 5% of the amount calculated by the claimant’s experts, finding that “there was little prospect for the Project to obtain the necessary social license to allow it to proceed to operation.”